炼油厂是现代能源系统的重要节点。汽油、柴油、航空燃料、润滑油以及大量石化原料，都离不开炼油过程。与此同时，炼油行业也是工业二氧化碳排放的重要来源之一。在全球气候目标不断收紧的背景下，炼油行业必须回答一个现实问题：如何在维持燃料和原料供应的同时，以尽可能低的成本减少碳排放？炼油厂脱碳真正需要解决的，不只是“有哪些技术可以用”，而是一个更具体的问题：哪一家炼油厂，在哪一个时间点，应该优先改造哪一个生产单元？
围绕这些问题，本研究构建了厂级低碳路径模型，综合考虑炼油厂运行状态、装置结构、运行年限、经济成本、低碳技术成熟度以及未来成本变化。模型包括炼油厂数据、碳排放、脱碳技术和政策情景四个模块，能够在厂级和生产单元尺度上评估不同减排方案的成本与效果。
研究表明，全球炼油行业的减排重点高度集中，并不适合采用平均化的治理方式。深度转化炼油厂虽然仅占全球炼油厂数量的34.0%，却贡献了2020年全球炼油行业88.1%的二氧化碳排放，并在2021-2070年承担85.2%-93.3%的累计减排成本。也就是说，未来炼油行业低碳转型的关键，不是对所有炼油厂提出同样的改造要求，而是优先识别高排放、高复杂度和高减排潜力的重点工厂，并针对其主要排放单元部署加热炉和锅炉CCS、低碳制氢以及生物原油替代等技术。研究同时揭示了炼油行业低碳转型中的成本—减排权衡，以及不同国家的最优路径也存在明显差异。
Publication:
Nature Chemical Engineering
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44286-026-00394-z
Author:
Kailan Tian
State Key Laboratory of Mathematical Sciences, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Shijun Ma
The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK.
Centre for Sustainability Science and Technology, University College London, London, UK
Jing Meng
The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK.
Centre for Sustainability Science and Technology, University College London, London, UK
e-mail: jing.j.meng@ucl.ac.uk
Tianyang Lei
The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK.
Xi Liang
The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK.
Liang Jing
Energy Sustainability Analysis Group, Technology Strategy and Planning Department, Aramco, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia.
Hassan El-Houjeiri
Climate and Sustainability Department, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Diling Liang
The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK.
Centre for Sustainability Science and Technology, University College London, London, UK
Peipei Chen
School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Dabo Guan
The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK.
Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System
Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
e-mail: guandabo@tsinghua.edu.cn
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