闫冰倩副研究员, 中国社会科学院财经战略研究院

In this paper, we employ a world multi-regional input-output model and construct an accounting framework to measure the impacts of outward industrial relocation. By conducting the counterfactual analysis and scenario analysis, we also analyze the mechanism (through which country and industry) and impact routes (through intermediate or final products) of industrial relocation effects. Results show that the inward industrial relocation from 2000 to 2014 had significantly boosted China's GDP and employment; the potential negative impact of outward industrial relocation from China to economies with lower production costs cannot be neglected.