Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, CAS
Colloquia & Seminars

Speaker:	王丁一，南京大学
Inviter:
Title:	Study on the statistical modeling and inference methods for the lifetime of virus
Language:	Chinese
Time & Venue:	2023.05.25 09:00-10:00 数学院N224
Abstract:	Recent concerns have arisen over the lifespan of viruses under different environmental conditions. Data on virus stability can provide insights into epidemiological characteristics such as seasonal transmission and prevalence. In the field of biology, virus inactivation is typically assumed as a first-order kinetic reaction, resulting in exponential decay of virus concentration in the environment. Degradation models can be established to estimate the lifetime and confidence interval of a specific virus under certain conditions. However, when making inferences based on these models, experimental noise can lead to underestimation of uncertainty. We address this issue by analyzing the uncertainty present in virus stability experiments and applying a comprehensive model that considers destructive measurements and assumes each titer measurement is from a different degradation sample. Considering the influence of temperature and relative humidity in virus inactivation, we analyze a temperature-humidity half-life prediction model based on reaction mechanism and evaluate the mechanism model qualitatively and quantitatively from the perspective of statistics.