Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, CAS
Colloquia & Seminars

Speaker:	Zitong Lu
Inviter:
Title:	Evaluating Causes of Effects by Posterior Effects of Causes
Language:	Chinese
Time & Venue:	2023.06.15 09:00-10:00 思源楼315
Abstract:	For the case with a single causal variable, Dawid et al. (2014) defined the probability of causation(PC), and Pearl (2000) defined the probability of necessity (PN) to assess the causes of effects. For a case with multiple causes and outcomes which may affect each other, we define the posterior total and direct causal effects (PostTCE & PostDCE) based on the observed evidence of post-treatment variables, which could be viewed as measurements of causes of effects. The posterior causal effects (PostCE) involve the probabilities of counterfactual variables. Thus, the identifiability of the PostCEs requires more assumptions than the identifiability of the traditional causal effects conditional on pre-treatment variables. We present assumptions required for the identifiability of the posterior causal effects and provide identification equations. Finally, using numerical examples, we compare the PostCEs with other measures for evaluating the causes of effects and population attributable risks.